What factors lead to the crash in the cryptocurrency market in 2018?
There were 3 factors.
A 100x Bitcoin increase, which has always been the maximum multiple for Bitcoin in its 4 year bull cycle
Lots of whales were cashing out
ICOs cashing out billions of dollars into USD
We will have number 1 and 2 happening again once Bitcoin goes to $310,000, which is 100x up from the low in 2019 of $3,100, but we probably won’t have 3.
Also, fewer whales will be cashing out since institutional investors don’t usually sell within times frames of less than a year. Some will, but probably not most. Michael Saylour who holds around $5B in Bitcoin with his companies said he will never sell. Elon Musk with another $2B probably isn’t planning to sell so soon either and the case is similar for many other whales.
However, crash will also probably happen earlier than $310,000, since the market is more mature now and the more mature it becomes, the less volatile it becomes.
Bitcoin has always corrected by 85% after the 4 years 100x bull cycle, however, in this one it could be a bit less since the market is more mature and it’s driven by lots of adoption, not just speculation.
There will probably be many altcoin crashes in 2022 with 90%-99%, so 2022 will probably not be such a good year to make gains with altcoins.
